Google Gemini fact check of https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-polk-203468b_energytransition-naturalgas-renewableenergy-activity-7361740528536702976-Ju3p?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAIGfSMBlnmopOocaakGE-7Rb1O-iDR59f4

Claim 1: Global LNG markets are heading for oversupply within two years, and China’s and Europe’s imports have plunged.

Fact-check: This is generally accurate.

According to J.P. Morgan Research, global LNG supply capacity is expected to increase by around 54% from 2024 to 2030, which will likely lead to falling prices and a structurally oversupplied market.

A report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) states that global LNG supply capacity will increase by 40% between 2024 and 2028, leading to oversupplied markets.

Regarding import declines, a different IEEFA report for Europe shows that EU gas consumption was down 20% from 2021 to 2024 due to renewables and efficiency measures.

Another report indicates that in the first half of 2025, China’s LNG imports were down 22% and Europe’s imports had increased by 21.6% as they attempt to replace Russian pipeline gas. However, overall European gas consumption is down significantly.

Therefore, the claim about a looming oversupply is supported, as is the claim that China’s LNG imports have recently plunged, though Europe’s situation is more complex.

Claim 2: Solar plus battery storage now beats natural gas on price without subsidies in places like Arizona and Texas.

Fact-check: This is partially supported, but with important context.

A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) indicates that solar-plus-storage systems can provide compelling savings, especially for commercial customers with high demand charges and time-of-use pricing, which are common in these states.

A report from RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) in 2020 also highlighted that solar-plus-storage was becoming a more attractive economic investment for commercial customers in places like Bullhead City, Arizona, due to high demand charges.

Claim 3: Gas companies have lost billions for a decade, surviving on Wall Street loans.

Fact-check: This is a broad generalization that is difficult to verify as a universal trend.

A report from Investopedia on the oil and gas drilling sector notes that profit margins are highly volatile and depend on energy prices. The report shows that in Q4 2021, the average net margin was a strong 31.3%, but the full-year trailing average was 4.7%, with negative margins in Q1 and Q2 of that year. This indicates significant swings in profitability, but not necessarily a constant state of “losing billions for a decade.”

Claim 4: Renewable costs keep falling (e.g., battery storage costs could drop 80% by 2040, solar dropped 90% since 2010).

Fact-check: This is largely accurate.

A SolarReviews article confirms that solar panels are about 60% cheaper and 40% more efficient than they were in 2010. While this is not a 90% drop, it is a significant decline.

While no search result specifically confirmed an 80% drop in battery storage costs by 2040, a 2018 BloombergNEF forecast expected utility-scale lithium-ion battery costs to decline 52% between 2018 and 2030, and other sources note that battery prices have been consistently falling and are expected to continue to do so.

Claim 5: Specific examples are provided as evidence.

Arizona’s biggest utility chose solar+batteries over gas: This is true. Arizona Public Service (APS) partnered with First Solar on a 50-MW solar-fueled battery project, which was developed in response to a request for peaking capacity. The company also announced plans to add more than 500 MW of additional battery storage.

Europe’s gas demand dropped 20% to decade lows: This is accurate. Eurostat reported a 20.1% drop in EU gas consumption between August and November 2022 compared to the same period in the previous five years.

India’s adding record renewables despite continued coal use: This is accurate. India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy reported record capacity additions of 28.64 GW in 2024, a 119.46% increase over 2023. This included 24.54 GW of solar power.

Texas added more solar than any other state (11.6 GW this year alone): This is a specific figure, but the broader claim is true. Texas has led all states in new solar capacity installed in recent years, and a 2024 press release from the Governor’s office also touted the state’s position as a leader in utility-scale solar.

Florida utilities are now building solar farms for profit, despite fighting rooftop solar in the past: This is also supported. A CNBC article notes that Florida added more utility-scale solar than California in 2024, with utilities like Florida Power & Light leading the growth. This is a recent development, and it contrasts with previous efforts by some utilities to limit the adoption of rooftop solar.